Pool B in the Rugby World Cup was dubbed the group of death from the off and Scotland are facing an uphill battle to advance with just one game to go.
After breezing past Tonga and Romania, Gregor Townsend and co are getting ready for a sure-to-be sensational clash with Ireland that is anything but a winner-takes-all match. A new set of permutations seems to pop up for just about every point difference imaginable but there are a few scenarios that seem more straightforward than others, with Scotland having to run the score up against one of the tournament's favourites.
A Scotland XV with 13 changes to the starting line-up faced Romania on Saturday and it was an 84-0 trouncing in the Scots' favour with Darcy Graham and Hamish Watson among the players who made a claim to play in the do-or-die game coming up this weekend. Here, Record Sport will outlines how Scotland can qualify after South Africa beat Tonga at the weekend to set up a potential three-way tussle for World Cup progression.
A simple victory over Ireland by an eight-point margin or more will do it. This seems relatively simple but Ireland are a formidable opponent as a Scotland victory, let alone by a sizeable margin, would be a miracle in itself. However, if Scotland can get a try bonus point and a win, then only a five-point margin for said victory is needed.
The controversial one - yes there's a controversial set of permutations - arises if Scotland record a bonus-point victory of 21 points or more with Ireland also collecting a lone bonus point, would see both sides advance at the expense of the Springboks. It's unlikely but potentially, it could be in Ireland's interests to allow Scotland to score if the Scots have scored three tries, and a fourth would take them over the 21 point margin and earn the bonus point.
However, Irish attack coach (and native South African) Mike Catt's comments on the bizarre scenario rule out any sort of agreement between the two teams, as expected. he said: That stuff is just white noise in the background. No, we’re not going to go in cahoots with Scotland.
“Firstly I’d ask you, would we want Scotland to beat us by 21 points? If you asked any player in this room, any of us, would they want Scotland to beat you by 21 points? No, sorry.
“Andy is fully aware of what’s going and what needs to happen. Ultimately, both teams need to win the game. If you do that then you put yourself in a good position. That’s what we will try and achieve.”